SCC Preview: Kahne has an advantageIn recent years, Sprint Cup teams have discovered good performances at Pocono and Indianapolis equate to one another. Success on the circuit's flat tracks also plays an instrumental role in contending for the checkered flag at those two superspeedways. So, don't be surprised if the victory contenders in the Allstate 400 at the Brickyard are the season's front-runners. Points leader Tony Stewart tied with Mark Martin for the most wins this season and championship contenders Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson -- second and third, respectively, in the standings, -- all carry a "favorite" banner at the historic 2.5-mile track. Winner of the 2007 race, Stewart not only has been the surprise of the 2009 season, he's also excelled on the flat tracks. He collected his first victory as a team owner at Pocono in June after taking second at Phoenix and Richmond. He then finished fifth at New Hampshire. He has finished outside the top 10 only four times this year. Currently riding a hot streak, Stewart has had only one finish outside the top five in the past seven races. At Indy, he's finished outside the top 10 only once in the past four races and led 215 career laps, second on the all-time list. he placed 23rd last year, but one really can't count the 2008 event because of the tire issues that kept the field from running barely more than 10 laps without a competition caution. And at Pocono (a flat, 2.5-mile triangular track), the Indiana native has finished outside the top five only once in the past four events. He leads in the number of laps completed this year -- 5,458 -- with a 99.95 percent completion rate, and is second in the number of points earned on a superspeedway with 1,826. Gordon, a former Indiana resident, is always a favorite at the Brickyard. Winner of the inaugural event in 1994, the 37-year-old has added three more trips to Victory Lane for an unprecedented four stock car racing victories at the 100-year-old facility. He has earned the most poles (3), recorded the most top-5s (9) and top-10s (12), led the most laps (440), produced the best average finish (8.6) and tied with Martin for the most lead-lap finishes (13). He leads in points earned on the superspeedways this year with 1,834, and is second in the overall standings, 175 points behind Stewart. He's batting .500 in top-5s in the past four Indy races and the past four Pocono events. In three of the four flat-track races this year, Gordon has produced top-10s. This season, Gordon has finished outside the top 10 only six times, and has produced five top-10s in the past six races. A two-time Brickyard winner and the race's defending champion, Johnson heads into one of the season's most prestigious events third in the standings and third in the number of points earned on superspeedways with 1,779. He's the circuit's top lap leader with 945, and he has produced three top-10s in the past four flat-track races. At Indy, he has won two of the past four, but hasn't placed in the top 10 in the other two. At Pocono, he has produced three top-10s in the past four events. This year, Johnson has finished outside the top 10 six times, and has produced six top-10s in the past seven races. Like Stewart, Martin has been a feel-good story this season with his series leading four victories. He's second in the number of poles won this year with three. The 50-year-old has competed in all 15 Brickyard races, but has never won the prestigious event. He is fifth in the percentage of laps led this year with 414 and seventh in the number of points earned on the superspeedways, 1,579. He enters Indianapolis fresh off a victory, having captured the race at Chicagoland two weeks ago. At Indy, he has three top-10s in the past four events and two top-5s in the past four flat-track races, with a victory at Phoenix. He also has recorded two top-10s in the past four Pocono events. One shouldn't focus solely on these four drivers. Other possible surprise contenders include Sam Hornish Jr., Casey Mears, Marcos Ambrose, Denny Hamlin and David Reutimann. Even though none of them lead a category, they have performed well this year on the flat tracks. Reutimann, who recorded his first career Sprint Cup victory in the rain-shortened Coca-Cola 600, has produced top-10s in three of the past four flat-track races, with his best finish being third at Pocono. Hornish and Mears were both familiar with Indianapolis Motor Speedway before joining NASCAR's ranks. Hornish won the Indianapolis 500 and Mears' uncle, Rick, also was victorious in the open-wheel event. In the past four flat-track races, Hornish has posted top-10s in all of them, with his best being sixth at Richmond. Mears' best performance in those same events was ninth at Richmond. Ambrose is coming on strong in the season's second half. He has posted two top-10s in the past four races, with his best finish in the past four flat-track events being sixth at Pocono. Hamlin's only top-10 in the past four flat-track events occurred at Phoenix, but he was knocking on the door in two others, 14th at Richmond and 15th at New Hampshire. He has produced two top-10s in the past four Indy races, including a third last year. Hamlin is also on a hot streak with four top-5s in the past five races. Note: Keep an eye on Kasey Kahne. Goodyear did seven tests at Indy to solve the tire problems they had a year ago and Kahne was involved in at least five of those tests. Big bucks (SCC value 22.0 and up) You have some difficult decisions to make this week with the "big boys." Each of the seven drivers in this price category are top-10 or better material. If you have Stewart (25.0) keep him, but if you don't, his price may be prohibitive. For a little less, Johnson (23.9) and Gordon (23.9) are potential winners. Dropping down a little lower, Hamlin (22.9) has a shot at a top-5. So do Ryan Newman (22.0) and Kurt Busch (22.8). I rate Carl Edwards (22.4) the lowest in this group. Serious coin (SCC value 19.0 to 22.0) I like Martin (21.2) in this group. Kahne (21.4) is a sleeper for this race, as are Reutimann (20.5) and a guy who also gets his cars from Michael Waltrip Racing, Ambrose (19.5). Juan Pablo Montoya (21.4) is a potential top-10, and at the same price Greg Biffle might be able to do the same thing. Budget boys (SCC value 13.0 to 19.0) There could be some help here this week. As mentioned, Hornish (15.6) has top-10s in all four flat-track races this year, and has a lot of experience at Indy in open wheel. I also think you can expect a solid performance from Joey Logano (17.8), Mears (18.0), Martin Truex Jr. (17.6) and Jamie McMurray (18.4), who you could argue has been the best Roush car on the flat tracks this year. If you're looking to go low, hoping for a top-25, you might think about Waltrip (15.4). Kevin Harvick (17.1) is a bargain, but can he pay off? His best finish in the past eight races is 17th. On the other hand, throwing out last year's tire debacle, he has won at Indy and had five top-10s in the six Brickyard races prior to last season. Even with 37th in 2008, he has an average finish of 11.5. All three of the other Petty drivers are going to be worth a look, too. Reed Sorenson (16.8), who has top-20s in all four flat-track races this year, A.J. Allmendinger (16.6) and Elliot Sadler (17.8), who has a new Dodge engine under the hood. Debit not credit At the top, I'm not going to give a lot of love to Edwards (22.4). Sure, he can get a top-10, but guys just below and above have a shot at a top-5. In the middle group, I'm going to stay away from Kyle Busch (21.4). Yes, he's capable of a monster performance, but has only one top-10 in the past seven races, with an average finish over that span of 19th. At the same price, I'm going with Kahne or drop down a little to Martin. Among the budget boys, Dale Earnhardt Jr. (18.3) is over-priced for the potential return. Guru Garrow's gang My preliminary team Stewart, Martin, Reutimann, Truex and Hornish. Mark Garrow covers fantasy racing for ESPN.com. |
| Segment Leaderboard | ||
| RNK | ENTRY, OWNER | PTS |
| 1 | Segment 1 Champs , boelrod2244 | 6842 |
| 2 | Elbows Up , BBrazz | 6788 |
| 3 | Phoenix Motorsports , Phoenix2009 | 6782 |
| 4 | Off The Pace Racing , dawggy45 | 6757 |
| 5 | Kenyon , Littleneon | 6740 |
| 6 | Monkey_Nuts_Racing , Monkey_Nuts_Racing | 6738 |
| 7 | AWM Racing , RosasGary | 6726 |
| 8 | Perrin Racing , eightyeighttbirdsport | 6712 |
| 9 | Ketchifkan , Ketchifkan | 6710 |
| 10 | Colombian Connection , Mauri180 | 6708 |
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